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FAO and OECD forecast - Milk Market in 2010-2020

According to the information FAMMU/ FAPPA experts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) brings together the richest countries in the world, with analysts of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in June 2012, once again presented a medium-term plan (2012-2021) the outlook for global food markets including dairy products. One of the basic assumptions is unchanging current agricultural policy on food markets. Forecasts do not take into account the possibility of different types of disasters and climate anomalies that even in the U.S. drought in July and August, which severely shook the global market milk.

Just like last year outlook for the milk market in 2012 are very optimistic. At the turn of the years 2010 and 2011, trading of dairy products in international markets rose significantly. The rise has been caused not only by concerns about rising feed prices, which took place at the beginning of 2011, but also by increased demand - mainly from the countries of the oil exporters and China. In 2011, it even came to the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, the effects of the earthquake in Japan, the bullish energy costs, and problems with the weather in the southern hemisphere (Australia, New Zealand).

The OECD report points to a steady increase in popularity of dairy products in developing regions. The dynamic growth of the population often goes hand in hand with increasing enrichment in local communities
(And progressive in the wake of this change in eating habits to one that is dominated by conventionally understood in the West).

Milk production in 2020 will be about 19.3% higher than in 2011. Weather OECD / FAO assumed in this period more than 2% average growth rate. The absolute increase in milk production in the years 2012-21 to nearly 120 million tons, 737.4 to 880.4 million tones.

The development of dairy herds will be more constrained by environmental factors and insufficient water resources in many regions, and therefore the increase in milk production will be crucial to improve the productivity of cows. Persist in this respect the enormous differences between the regions of the globe - from the highest in North America and Western Europe with the average in the Pacific and Latin America to the lowest in Asian developing countries, although the pace of growth of milk will be there relatively soon.

As many as 79% of the additional quantity of milk produced will come from non-OECD countries, whose share in the total world production has achieved almost 60%. This will happen as a result of very rapid growth in China (an increase of over 53% in the same period), and an equally impressive in India (+60%) and less dynamic in Brazil (almost 40%) - it is worth noting that the projected trends for 2021 years of milk production in this country can practically exceed production in the EU.

Strong growth trends to continue in South America - in addition to the previously mentioned increase in the supply of raw material in Brazil in Argentina is expected to increase by more than 75.8. According to experts, this is a potentially significant "zone of cheap mass production of milk."

The developed (for simplicity we assume that this is the current composition of the OECD) in the global amount of milk during this time will steadily decrease.

Although the EU remains the largest producer of milk in this group, however, despite the abolition of
growth in milk quotas to be poor - all of a sudden a little just 7% over nearly a decade.

OECD analysts see good prospects for Russia (up 12.4%), falls for caution, however, that the rustic political and macroeconomic environment is unstable, which often led to the crisis.