Different prospects for grain prices in the United States and the EU
While market participants in the United States are waiting for the start of next season, small increases in wheat prices in Europe, it is expected that post-harvest prices drop considerably.
As can be seen from Friday (4.01) listed on major stock exchanges in the United States, cereal, contracts expiring in September and December have a higher price than contracts expiring in May or July 2013. This is especially soft wheat trading, red winter (SRW) is listed on the stock exchange in Chicago and a hard red winter (HRW) quoted on the Stock Exchange in Kansas City. In the case of contracts expiring in December are about 4 percent. more expensive than contracts expiring in May. For now, smaller increases are expected in the prices of high-grade wheat DNS listed in Minneapolis - the difference between the quotations of December and the May contract is 1 percent.
Unlike elsewhere in the world, the production of wheat in the United States in the season 2012/13 was high, with 13.5 percent. higher than a year earlier (December report by the USDA). In turn, more and more disturbing information on the possible level of wheat production in the country in 2013.
Expected price increases greater SRW and HRW wheat than the DNS have their roots in different weather conditions in different regions of the wheat production in the current season. In the states located in the southern part of the Great Plains, particularly in the states of Kansas and Oklahoma, there is the biggest drought years, and the state of the local wheat is the worst in the history of the study. Better situation in terms of soil moisture there is in the states of central and northern regions, the main wheat production in the DNS. Besides, today it is difficult to make any predictions yet for the production of spring wheat in the United States.
Unlike the United States is as demand and supply side situation in the European Union. Harvest in season 2012/13 was bad, by 4.5 percent. lower than a year earlier. What's more, due to the possibility of comprehensive export of wheat from Black Sea countries, the demand on the international markets for EU wheat is high. This causes the grain to be expensive. However, the first forecast for next season say about the possibility of a significant increase in wheat production in the EU. According to the December report, Strategy Grains of wheat production in the EU-27 may reach 134.22 million tons, an increase of 9 percent. for the season 2012/13. Thus, market players predict that in mid-2013, the price of hard to reduce. At the Paris Stock Exchange (MATIF) trading wheat contracts expiring in November 2013 are about 9 percent. lower than the trading of contracts expiring in May. A similar difference in the case of contracts traded on the London Stock Exchange (LIFFE) is as high as 12 percent.
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