Less wheat in Australia
Australia is another key supplier of wheat threatened by drought this season. Previously reported a significant fall harvest Russia (from 56.2 million tons to 39 million tons), Ukraine (from 22.3 million tons to 13.5 million tons), Kazakhstan (22.7 million tons to 11 million tons) and the European Union (from 137.4 million tons to 131.4 million tons in the wheat 123.5 million tons). Note observers automatically routes so the southern hemisphere countries, classified as one of the leading exporters of wheat, and they are Australia and Argentina.
Previous forecasts for Australia do not look even disastrously, because drought affects only a part of the Australian continent. However, this fact reinforces concerns about the results of grain production. The most drought affected areas of the continent's western and southern part of the country. However, east of the continent is virtually covered by the negative effects of drought.
Analysts believe that if the rainfall in the west of the country does not increase, it may cause a further loss. Western Australia produces part of at least one-third of the wheat harvest. The current yield forecasts for the region are in the range from 5.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons, significantly less compared to a record 11.73 million tons in the previous season. Somewhat more optimistic forecasts are ABARE - of 7.1 million tons.
Even in early September forecast of wheat production in Australia were very optimistic. USDA predicted harvest of up to 26 million tons. But already in the first half of September started strongly correct predictions due to the drought. Currently, estimates range from 20.0 million tons to 24 million tons and the average of the forecasts is about 22 million tons.
Australian wheat export forecast for the season 2012/13 range from 21.5 million tons to 16 million tons. Exports of last season was as high as 23.5 million tons, which gave Australia the second position in the ranking of the world's wheat exporters.
Australian wheat harvest will begin in October, hence the nervous producers and traders waiting on the results of this year's production.
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