Wheat - different price trends on both sides of the Atlantic
This season is completely different price trends shaping the wheat market on both sides of the Atlantic. Are also different expectations about the future direction of change
North American stock markets in recent weeks, prices were only slightly higher than the same time last year. For example, on Friday 08/03/2013 soft red winter wheat (SRW) listed on the stock exchange in Chicago reached the closing price of 690 cents per bushel (March contract). That's less than 3 percent. obtain more than about a year ago in a contract on 12.03.2012 near the same hard red winter wheat (HRW) quoted in Kansas City is only less than 5 percent. more expensive than last year. The DNS wheat quoted in Minneapolis is about 2 percent. cheaper than a year ago.
Completely different from the comparison of current prices in Europe last year. Wheat consumer MATIF quoted in Paris on Friday reached a price of 234.00 EUR / t compared to 213.75 EUR / ton on Friday 12.03.2012 This means that the current price is about 9.5 percent. higher than the price before almost a year.
Annual growth even higher prices found in Poland. According to the listing of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the average purchase price of wheat consumption by plants in the last week of February (25.02-3.03) amounted to PLN 1,012 / t and was about 24 percent. higher than a year ago. Wheat feed purchased by companies leapt even more - by 30 percent.
Further increase in prices of wheat in Russia. The FAO data shows that the wholesale price of wheat consumption expressed in rubles in February 2013 was about 85 percent. higher than a year earlier. This is one side effect of the catastrophic drought in 2012 and the relatively rapid sell-off of export surplus in the season 2012/13, on the other hand the relatively low prices at the beginning of 2012.
In this case, it is not surprising that, in the context of the expected decline in wheat production in the United States in 2013 as a result of autumn drought in the southern Great Plains, stock market participants expect the harvest in 2013, prices will increase. The December futures for the main types of wheat are valued by 0.6 to 4.6 percent. higher than the May. On the other hand, in Europe, is expected to be quite large price declines in the second half of 2013, the Early projections suggest more soft wheat production in the EU-27. The European Commission forecasts growth compared to the previous year by 6.3 percent., And analytical agency Tallage 5.9 percent. As a result, the December futures for wheat on the Paris Stock Exchange (MATIF) and the London Stock Exchange (LIFFE) on Friday were measured respectively by 10.7 and 6.8 percent. lower than the May contracts.
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